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The Best Outcome
The US rapidly establishes a stable and free democracy based on the rule of law. The Iraqi people thank us for our efforts and the Middle East becomes a safer and more stable place. 

As Richard Pearle, the chief architect of the Iraq war said in the May/June edition of Foreign Policy magazine, "We will hand over power quickly - not in years, maybe not even in months - to give the Iraqis a chance to shape their own destiny. The whole world will see this. And I expect the Iraqis to be at least as thankful as French president Jacques Chirac was for France's liberation."
Probability that this will happen - 5%
 

"Actions not words buy you credibility in this region.... Once we get the rule of law in place in Iraq, we should get out " - Former CIA agent Robert Baer testifying before Congress 7/24/03

The Worst Outcome
Iraqis continue to mount resistance against the US occupation and carry out massive protests against anything American. A growing number will begin to reject everything Washington attempts, and will carry out daily acts of violence targeted at US troops. 

Privately the general population of Iraq will support these maneuvers, while publicly they will smile and wave at US troops and thank the US for their "liberation."

Iraq will continue to attract terrorists from around the world to take part in the ensuing chaos gripping the country.

This chaos will be manipulated as evidence of the US-Israel alliance that is out to destroy the Arab and Muslim world, further encouraging new recruits to carry out terrorist attacks against US interests and on US soil. 

Americans, both soldiers and civilians at home, will become far less safe than they were before the war. Eventually the costs of occupying Iraq will become too great to bear both in terms of human lives and financial expenditures.

Lack of support for the occupation back home will cause Washington to completely withdraw from Iraq and history will regard it as another Vietnam. Probability that this will happen - 25%

The Most Likely Outcome
Closer to the worst case than to the best case, many Iraqis will continue to resist US influences and continue to carry out attacks on US troops. 

As time goes on the $4 billion per month price tag, along with decreasing support at home for the reconstruction will continue to put pressure on the Bush Administration and the Pentagon to show some tangible successes in their reconstruction efforts.

With that in mind, the Bush administration will declare that significant headway has been made in bringing the rule of law to Iraq, and that we have have drafted their first constitution. 

Furthermore, Washington will publicly proclaim that Iraq will never be a US-style democracy in such a short period of time (1-2 years), but we have clearly left them better off than we found them.

"What we will do in Iraq is get them started, but we will not finish... It isn't suddenly going to become Indiana" - Anthony Cordesman of CSIS testifying before Congress 7/24/03

The Pentagon will draw down most of the troops, leaving behind a few dozen  advisors. However, we will maintain several long term military bases in Iraq,  strategically placed to guard oil assets and allow us to quickly mobilize forces.

Because of the perceived mishandling and ulterior motives of the Bush administration's reconstruction efforts many, if not all of our changes will only last as long as US guns are pointing at Iraqi faces. Probability that this will happen - 70%

 

Even the best of these outcomes are a far cry from the predictions of success Americans were promised by those that rushed us into the war.  Recall the justifications given for going to war in Iraq: they have weapons of mass destruction, it will prevent further acts of terrorism, it will be a quick and inexpensive war, the Iraqi people will welcome us as liberators, etc. It will be interesting to see what the future of US involvement in Iraq will bring. We have outlined above what we think is the most likely outcome, and now we'd like to hear from you. Name Hometown Tell us what you think!

 

Also in this Issue: Q&A with American Heroes Clash of Fundamentalisms Imperial Autocracy in Iraq Full List of Articles